An agent-based model of retrofit diffusion

In 2017, the building stock was responsible for, approximately, 40% of energy consumption and 36% of CO2 emissions of the European Union, which has spurred the EU to increase the energy efficiency targets up to 32.5% in 2030. In particular, the residential sector is the sector with the highest available energy saving potential, accounting for the greatest share (i.e. 27%) of energy consumption. To this purpose, the European Commission lunched a new strategy to double annual energy renovation rate, giving major attention to retrofit of the existing building stock. However, the related policy measures have somehow proven unsatisfactory. The latest assessment on the progress made by Member States towards the energy efficiency targets shows that the EU 2020 target is unlikely to be met, a trend that makes the EU 2030 target more difficult to achieve. In the face of this evidence a better understanding of the factors that shape the households decision to invest in energy-efficient technologies seems central to provide a solid foundation for policy-makers and, consequently, to achieve the EU energy efficiency target.

The literature on the topic is variegated. In addition to the financial constraints versus savings, recent studies have highlighted the role of behavioral attitudes
and inter-personal influence on the adoption decision. In particular, households’ level of environmental concern has been proven to influence energy efficiency technology adoption, which is defined in the behavioral literature as the way individuals internalize the benefits for the environment associated to their adoption decision.